by Daniel Brouse
November 20, 2023
Human-induced climate change is a dynamic part of an unordered system, per chaos theory. Global warming is accelerating in complex, exponential patterns.
"For people, other species, ecosystems, and the world we live in, we've entered the Age of Loss and Damage, but we're just at the start," said Dr. Christopher Trisos (University of Cape Town). "We can't eliminate loss and damage. It is here. But there is a lot we can do to limit it."
Earth's 20th-century average surface temperature was 13.9℃. In early July 2023, the global average reached 17℃.
Q: Can humans survive temperatures over 3℃ above pre-industrial levels?
A: Probably not for long; humans have never experienced such conditions before.
On September 6, 2023, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned, "Climate breakdown has begun," after the WMO reported the hottest Northern Hemisphere summer in recorded history. "The dog days of summer are not just barking; they are biting."
"What we are observing are not only new extremes but persistent record-breaking conditions, with impacts on people and the planet as a clear consequence of climate warming," noted Carlo Buontempo, Director at C3S.
Climate breakdown occurs when feedback loops form and tipping points are crossed. Extinction of plant species and collapse of carbon sinks will cause Earth's temperature to accelerate exponentially, even if humans stop emissions. Food, fresh water, and breathable air will become scarce, threatening human survival.
Crossing multiple tipping points could create a domino effect, leading to far more rapid and severe climate change than projected.
In October 2023, the ESA Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that September's global average temperature was 16.38℃, breaking the previous monthly record by 0.5℃--the largest increase ever recorded for a monthly high.
"It's mind-blowing," said Copernicus Director Buontempo. "Never seen anything like that in our records."
"This isn't just a statistic. It's a death sentence for people and ecosystems," added Friederike Otto, climate scientist at Imperial College London.
On November 20, 2023, the UN Emissions Gap Report confirmed that current pledges will likely lead to over 3℃ warming this century. The State of the Cryosphere Report added, "Two degrees is too high. This insanity must stop. The melting point of ice listens only to our actions, not rhetoric."
This era requires a blend of economics, climate science, statistics, and physics to understand and address climate risk accurately. Traditional economic models like integrated assessment models (IAMs) underestimate risk by using quadratic functions instead of models reflecting exponential climate damage.
Thierry Philipponnat of Finance Watch notes, "Climate change is different from other shocks because it does not go away." His report, Finance in a Hot House World, calls for new economic tools to reflect systemic climate risk accurately.
Scientists have underestimated the domino effect of tipping cascades, which amplify climate impacts across biogeophysical and social systems. The University of Exeter reports a "lack of topic clusters" on human impacts from tipping cascades, underscoring the need for updated forecasting models after record-breaking heat and climate extremes in 2023.
Climate change accelerates through thermal energy and socio-economic feedback loops, worsened by unintended consequences and inexplicable consumer choices that intensify tipping points and feedback loops.
Litigation for loss and damage will reshape global economics, similar to how lawsuits transformed the tobacco industry. Consumers will sue oil companies for misleading them about fossil fuel dangers, and governments will face litigation for failing to protect citizens' rights to a livable environment.
Climate collapse is on track to destabilize and end global capitalism. As extreme weather escalates, the insurance industry is collapsing, taking capitalism with it. The canary in the coal mine isn't just singing; it's screaming.
Triggering tipping points can release CO2 stored in nature, potentially increasing temperatures by 3-6℃. Humans cannot thrive beyond 1.5℃ warming, and large parts of Earth will become uninhabitable if temperatures rise an additional 6℃.
Global warming will continue even if emissions stop now, as nature has been triggered to emit greenhouse gases. The sooner humans halt emissions and adapt habitats to limit natural emissions, the better.
Disease vectors, violent rain, and deadly humid heat are driving an exponential increase in climate-related deaths, proving that climate change is already a public health crisis.
Welcome to the Age of Loss and Damage.
* Our climate model -- which incorporates complex socio-economic and ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, nonlinear system -- projects that global temperatures could rise by up to 9°C (16.2°F) within this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates of a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, highlighting a dramatic acceleration in global warming. We are now entering a phase of compound, cascading collapse, where climate, ecological, and societal systems destabilize through interlinked, self-reinforcing feedback loops.
We examine how human activities -- such as deforestation, fossil fuel combustion, mass consumption, industrial agriculture, and land development -- interact with ecological processes like thermal energy redistribution, carbon cycling, hydrological flow, biodiversity loss, and the spread of disease vectors. These interactions do not follow linear cause-and-effect patterns. Instead, they form complex, self-reinforcing feedback loops that can trigger rapid, system-wide transformations -- often abruptly and without warning. Grasping these dynamics is crucial for accurately assessing global risks and developing effective strategies for long-term survival.
"Solutions to the Fossil Fuel Economy and the Myths Accelerating Climate and Economic Collapse."
Original Draft: The Age of Loss and Damage
Chaos Theory and Climate Change
Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration